Money Market

Interbank liquidity deteriorated further today as the FGN bond auction settlement drained c.₦271 billion from the system. This pushed rates higher, with the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) rising 492bps to 32.42% and the Overnight Rate (O/N) climbing 450bps to 32.83%.

Outlook: Interbank rates are likely to ease as the market settles ₦808.73 billion in NTB auction winnings, with c.₦1.18 trillion maturing.

Treasury Bills

The Treasury Bills market saw subdued activity as attention turned to the NTB auction. The CBN sold ₦808.73 billion (versus ₦700 billion offered), with ₦1.43 trillion in subscriptions. Stop rates held steady at 18.00% (91-day) and 18.50% (182-day), while the 364-day rate fell 31bps to 19.63%. The benchmark NTB mid-rate closed at 18.96%.

Outlook: Tomorrow’s session is likely to show a mixed-to-positive trend, with some investors covering missed bids while others take profits on their auction winnings.

FGN Bonds

The local bonds market showed limited activity, with modest interest in mid-tenor papers (Feb 2031, May 2033) and sideways movement on long-dated bonds (Jun 2053). The average mid-yield edged up 3bps to close at 18.45%.

Outlook: Market sentiment is expected to remain mixed as investors continue to selectively target value opportunities in the near term.

Eurobonds

The SSA and North African Eurobonds closed weaker as risk-off sentiment and global rate concerns dampened demand, pushing yields higher across the curve. The selloff coincided with tech sector declines that snapped a three-day rebound, as trade war fears resurfaced ahead of President Trump’s expected auto tariff announcement. Nigerian bonds underperformed, with average yields rising 7bps to 9.43%.

Outlook: The market will face persistent pressure through year-end from tariff impacts and softening economic indicators.

Nigerian Equities

The Nigerian equities market closed lower as the All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 11bps, trimming YTD returns to 2.48%. Market breadth remained positive, with 31 stocks advancing against 18 decliners. MBENEFIT (+10%) led the gainers, while UHOMREIT (-9.93%) topped the losers. WAPCO dominated both the volume and value charts with 4.47 billion shares traded at N330.15 billion, primarily due to a restructuring within the Holcim Group. Sectoral performance was mixed. The NGX Banking Index gained 13bps, driven by GTCO (+1.99%) and FIDELITYBK (+0.52%), while ZENITHBANK (-1.11%) and FCMB (-2.01%) dragged. The Consumer Index rose 35bps on NESTLE (+2.56%), while CHAMPION (-5%) weighed on the sector. The Oil & Gas Index gained 3bps on ETERNA (+3.91%), while the Industrial Index closed flat. Value traded surged 2,172.65% to $222.77m, led by the WAPCO cross. Banking stocks remained the focal point, with notable transactions in GTCO, FIDELITYBK, and SEPLAT.

Outlook: We expect mixed sentiments in the interim, with additional financial results anticipated to be released soon.

Foreign Exchange

The NFEM remained stable today, with the USD/NGN pair fluctuating between $/₦1,528.00 and $/₦1,541.00 before settling at $/₦1,537.62.

Outlook: We expect the CBN to maintain its support for the USD/NGN pair.

Commodities

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by a drop in U.S. crude and fuel inventories and concerns over tighter global supply following U.S. tariff threats on nations purchasing Venezuelan oil. Brent crude rose 82 cents, or 1.12%, to $73.84 per barrel by 12:11 p.m. ET (1611 GMT), the highest since February 27. WTI crude gained 82 cents, or 1.19%, to $69.82. Meanwhile, gold prices dipped as the dollar and U.S. bond yields strengthened, though uncertainty over new tariffs from the Trump administration kept prices above $3,000. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,015.50 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.1% to $3,022.10.

Outlook: OPEC+ appears to be increasing output to counter potential U.S. sanctions on Iran, aiming to replace up to 1.5 million bpd of lost exports while maintaining price stability in global markets.